Public investment and agricultural infrastructure in Manabí and its impact on productivity (2007–2020)
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.70577/evxf9s27Keywords:
Agricultural infrastructure, public investment, Manabí, agricultural productivity, yield.Abstract
The study analyzes the impact of public investment in agricultural infrastructure on agricultural sector productivity in the province of Manabí, Ecuador, during the period 2007–2020. A quantitative approach with a longitudinal non-experimental design was adopted, based on time series obtained from the Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock, the National Institute of Statistics and Census, and the Central Bank of Ecuador. Methodologically, a log-log econometric model and an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) cointegration model were estimated, complemented by unit root tests, correlation analysis, and an error correction mechanism, in order to identify short- and long-term dynamic relationships between public investment in infrastructure and provincial agricultural productivity. The results show that public investment maintains a positive and statistically significant relationship with agricultural yield. The ARDL model estimated a long-run elasticity of 0.39 (p < 0.01), indicating that increases in investment generate proportional improvements in productivity. The Bounds test confirmed the existence of cointegration among the variables (F = 5.21). Cultivated area exhibited a significant negative coefficient (−0.365; p < 0.05), suggesting an intensive growth pattern driven by improvements in productive efficiency rather than land expansion. Rural employment showed a moderate positive effect on yield (0.172; p < 0.05). The ECM model indicated a rapid adjustment toward long-run equilibrium.
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